Analysis | Lack of Leadership Worsened the Pandemic, Not Young People

Throughout the coronavirus pandemic, politicians from both parties are scapegoating youth鈥攋ust as they鈥檝e done before with crime and drugs.

The coronavirus pandemic that erupted in March and resurged since June has shifted from Democratic to Republican states with a vengeance.

Before May 1, a resident of a Democratic state was 2.3 times as likely to be diagnosed with coronavirus than a resident of a Republican state. By August, the pattern has reversed: Republican-state residents were 1.8 times as likely to be diagnosed as their Democratic counterparts.

Is this dramatic shift finally going to create a national resolve among Republican leaders to stop characterizing the pandemic as and federal initiatives to ameliorate its effects as a 鈥溾€�?

That appears unlikely. Republicans remain opposed to effective public health and economic measures, such as mandating mask-wearing and , on both national and state bases. Instead, as cases rose sharply, a bipartisan 鈥渦s versus them鈥� movement and media narrative turned to blaming 鈥測oung people.鈥�

大象传媒 infographic by Tracy Matsue Loeffelholz.

Two governors illustrate the problem. When the coronavirus made its initial appearance in March, Democratic Gov. large areas of California to effectively slow the disease spread. Florida鈥檚 Republican Gov. .

Then, in May, both governors鈥攍ike most state and local leaders, under pressure from the Trump administration and right-wing protesters鈥攔elaxed public health restrictions. erupted in both states, rising 12-fold in California and 16-fold in Florida over the past three months.

Scapegoating the Young

Now, Newsom and DeSantis share rare agreement on one point. 鈥淪elfish鈥oung people鈥� who 鈥渢hink they are invincible鈥� are largely , Newsom declared. DeSantis blamed for Florida鈥檚 infection outbreak (even though he notoriously refused to close beaches before Spring Break week in March).

Newsom鈥檚 popular stereotype of young people, like racial prejudice, is unfounded. Studies consistently show young people harbor no more than older people. Young people鈥檚 , not innate recklessness.

鈥淚 see plenty of as we have opened up,鈥� Dr. Kirsten Bibbins-Domingo, chair of the University of California, San Francisco, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, told the Mercury News. 鈥淚 don鈥檛 think it鈥檚 helpful to demonize one group or another.鈥�

In fact, the most recent Gallup survey found 76% of 18- to 34-year-olds reported to curb the virus鈥檚 spread, compared to 71% of those age 55 and older and 69% of 35- to 54-year-olds. The proportions that 鈥渞arely鈥� or 鈥渘ever鈥� wear masks in public were 14% for ages 18 to 34, 17% for ages 55 and older, and 19% for ages 35 to 54 (the 41-year-old DeSantis鈥� and 52-year-old Newsom鈥檚 demographic).

Increased infections among the young more likely result from leaders鈥� decisions to prematurely reopen businesses and public life, along with increased testing of younger populations with lesser symptoms, Bibbins-Domingo noted. Young people, like non-White minorities, dominate compelled by economic circumstances to return to work. Two-thirds of restaurant workers, half of emergency paramedics and health assistants, and nearly half of grocery workers are 34 or younger, the Bureau of Labor Statistics show.

That reality is buttressed by coronavirus statistics no one mentions. . Latinx people in particular have been hard hit. Newsom, DeSantis, and other authorities are by indulging in easy scapegoating.

Leadership Is Out of Ideas

American leaders resorting to scapegoating to absolve bad policies is a major reason the United States suffers such outsized crises. Some pessimism about the course of this one is warranted.

Of the 24 most affluent nations with modern health registries,* the United States has 32% of their total population. Yet, among those nations, , 60% of , and 71% (and rising) of . The among those advanced nations. are higher than found in any wealthy nation.

Things are getting worse. Forecasts predict a U.S. record 72,000 , 41,000 gun killings, and 50,000 suicides. And now the is expected to near 300,000 by the end of the year. Those in power in national or local government, with a few exceptions, are not proposing responses commensurate with our crises.

Americans refuse to learn from successes in other nations, or even from our own homegrown solutions. For example, gun deaths and homicide arrests among New York City and Los Angeles teenagers declined by 90% from 1990 to 2019; youth crime nationwide declined 85%; and arrests of those under age 13 dropped 95%.

Unfortunately, American interests across the spectrum, though ever-ready to trumpet crises, remain uninterested in analyzing success. The main hope at present is that local interests will innovate new ideas and force a broader awareness upon the rest of us.

Stop Denigrating the Young and Learn From Them

Experts, including those who recognize that social disadvantages foster higher risks among minorities, still pathologize young people as dangerous and endangered because of reckless personal misbehaviors. This is a terrible mistake.

America鈥檚 teenagers, , suffer poverty levels exceeding 20%, much higher than older age groups. Poverty correlates with higher levels of exposure to violence, crime, pollution, disease, and stress, and also to poorer health care.

Yet . Among Americans 15 to 64, teenagers ages 15 to 19 (making up 10% of that group) account for just 9% of gun deaths, 7% of coronavirus cases, 6% of suicides and suicide-indicated deaths, and 5% of criminal arrests, and fewer than 1% of drug and alcohol overdose deaths. Only for homicides, which overwhelmingly victimize persons of color, do teenagers鈥� risks match those of older adults.

Why are older teenagers, the most economically disadvantaged and diverse population other than children, actually less inclined to most serious risks than are adults鈥攅specially richer and more advantaged middle-aged adults? Why have risks for teenagers risen less rapidly, or actually declined in key categories, while in older adults they have gotten worse?

Amid national political and health crises, we are seeing a generational revolution. Young people are not conforming to crude stereotypes, social conditions, or expectations. They are forging new behaviors appropriate to their global diversity and the challenges forced on them by their elders.

We don鈥檛 yet know why this is or how it came about because we don鈥檛 ask. When adult Americans stop prioritizing money, ideology, self-superiority, and self-interest, we may start to find some surprising answers.

*What constitutes a similarly affluent 鈥減eer鈥� nation for the United States is subject to different assumptions. This comparison uses the United States plus the other 23 original nations of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, and the United Kingdom.

Mike Males is a senior researcher for the Center on Juvenile and Criminal Justice, the principal investigator for YouthFacts, and the author of five books on American youth.

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