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The draconian coronavirus lockdowns across the world have led to sharp drops in carbon emissions, but this will have 鈥渘egligible鈥� impact on the climate crisis, with global heating cut by just 0.01C by 2030, a study has found.

But the analysis also shows that putting the huge sums of post-COVID-19 government funding into a green recovery and shunning fossil fuels will give the world a good chance of keeping the rise in global temperatures below 1.5C. The scientists said we are now at a 鈥渕ake or break鈥� moment in keeping under the limit鈥攁s compared with preindustrial levels鈥攁greed by the world鈥檚 governments to avoid the worst effects of global heating.

The research is primarily based on newly available Google and Apple mobility data. This gives near-real-time information on travel and work patterns and therefore gives an idea of the level of emissions. The data covered 123 countries that together are responsible for 99% of fossil fuel emissions. The researchers found that global CO₂ emissions dropped by more than 25% in April 2020, and nitrogen oxides by 30%.

鈥淭he direct effect of the pandemic-driven [lockdown] will be negligible,鈥� said the researchers, whose analysis was led by Professor Piers Forster at the University of Leeds. 鈥淚n contrast, with an economic recovery tilted towards green stimulus and reductions in fossil fuel investments, it is possible to avoid future warming of 0.3C by 2050.鈥�

A green recovery from the pandemic is essential.

The above the long-term average and even with current emissions-cutting pledges a further rise of 0.6C is expected by 2050. 鈥淚t is now make or break for the 1.5C target,鈥� Forster said. 鈥淭his is a once-in-a-generation opportunity to really change the direction of society. We do not have to go back to where we were, because times of crisis are also the time to change.鈥�

Professor Keith Shine, at the University of Reading and not part of the study team, said, 鈥淚t is deeply impressive to get such a near-real-time analysis of the climate impact [of the lockdowns].鈥�

Shine said a green recovery from the pandemic is essential to meet the target: 鈥淭he study shows that, because CO₂ is so persistent in the atmosphere, short-term emission reductions resulting directly from the pandemic lockdowns lead to undetectable reductions in warming. It is only via sustained and radical changes in the way we use fossil fuels that we can hope to meet the Paris [climate agreement] target.鈥�

The analysis, , used mobility data from Google and Apple that tracks the location of individuals. This was used to assess changes in levels of transport and office and factory working, and then the emissions of 10 greenhouse gases and air pollutants.

These estimates matched the measurements available for some gases, such as nitrogen oxides, pollutants mostly emitted by diesel vehicles. The team assumed that significant restrictions on activity caused by COVID-19 remained in place until the end of 2021. However, using computer models, the team showed this would result in only a small decrease in long-term global heating.

The scientists also examined recovery scenarios. If the recovery mirrors the investments made after the 2008 financial crisis鈥攚hich included major support for fossil fuels鈥攖he global temperature will rise by more than 1.5C by 2050, which scientists say will cause widespread damage across the world.

However, a strong green recovery that invests 1.2% of global GDP in low-carbon technologies鈥攎ore than $1 trillion鈥攁nd does not support bailouts for fossil fuel companies is likely to cut warming by 0.3C, the scientists found.

Forster said the are backing both green technologies and fossil fuels. 鈥淚t is still going both ways. But , so if we don鈥檛 keep the rise to 1.5C, it is still worth getting to zero carbon as fast as possible.鈥�

Dr Jaise Kuriakose, at the University of Manchester and not involved in the study, said people鈥檚 activities had changed in previously unthinkable ways, with a stop to flying and a shift to virtual meetings.

鈥淭hese suggest there is a public willingness for behavioral changes to a more sustainable and low-carbon lifestyle,鈥� he said. 鈥淸But] to take advantage of this, structural changes and new policies are essential. Without a green recovery, it is even challenging to meet the UK government鈥檚 legislated net-zero target by 2050, let alone the ambitious Paris Agreement.鈥�

This story originally appeared in and is republished here as part of Covering Climate Now, a global journalism collaboration strengthening coverage of the climate story.