大象传媒

As I started to write this, it was the two-year anniversary of Donald Trump鈥檚 insurrection to remain in the White House. I spent the day watching the U.S. House of Representatives try to elect a speaker. A core of right-wing extremists had been blocking Rep. Kevin McCarthy鈥檚 bid, and McCarthy only prevailed in the 15th round of voting because he promised to embolden the most extreme members of the Republican caucus.

While it was somewhat amusing to watch the party repeatedly demonstrate its inability to govern, for the next two years, we鈥檙e still going to have to live with the chaos it鈥檚 come to embody.

And while since he left office following his second impeachment, the reactionary grievances that drove him and his supporters are still motivating a significant portion of the Republican Party. That isn鈥檛 good for us as a society or as a nation.

The Republicans have already indicated what we can expect over the next two years: endless hearings on anything they think will give them a political advantage in the 2024 elections. House leadership has already created a subcommittee to 鈥溾�� leading the Justice Department鈥檚 investigation of Trump鈥檚 attempted coup. That committee is likely to include several representatives who may have been involved in the attempt to overturn the 2020 election, including the new .

On the policy front, most of the Republican wish list items鈥攅liminating Social Security, for example鈥攚on鈥檛 survive the Democrat-controlled Senate or President Biden鈥檚 veto. But there鈥檚 still potential to do a lot of damage. Rep. Scott Perry, originally one of 20 holdouts in the speaker vote, told CNN Friday that one of the conditions McCarthy agreed to was to .

This is (and 2013 and 2015) when they wanted to extract concessions from the Obama administration on must-pass legislation. Increasing the debt limit is necessary to allocate the funds that Congress approved in its budget. Without doing so, the government will be unable to pay its debts, risking both the national and global economy, which are still largely dependent on the stability of the U.S. dollar.

The public doesn鈥檛 yet know all of what McCarthy has promised the party鈥檚 right-wing hardliners. But the new speaker鈥檚 desperation for the gavel is only matched by his , and he the extremists鈥� demand for a one-vote threshold to call for a new speaker election. The result is clear: House Republicans鈥攁nd the speaker himself鈥攚ill be driven by the priorities of the party鈥檚 most rabid extremist (not to mention white supremacist) wing.

In the first days of the 118th Congress, the new GOP majority set up after the Jan. 6 ransacking of the building and introduced a motion to stop the IRS from hiring any new staff. The rule package also includes a plan and . And McCarthy looks like he鈥檚 planning revenge on several Democrats in the chamber, including .

Against that backdrop, it鈥檚 a bit difficult to look to the next two years and find silver linings. But they are there.

It鈥檚 true that divided government is a recipe for paralysis. Movement on the Democrats鈥� agenda will slow to a crawl, and what passes will be watered down significantly. But this also means that Republicans will be unable to do as much damage as they鈥檇 like to. Their principal bludgeon will be the ability to stall the legislative process鈥攚hich does have negative ramifications (pity the inevitably furloughed federal workers), but is less likely to result in a full legislative slide into fascism.

Further, tactics like holding the debt limit hostage through government shutdowns typically backfire. This political stunt becomes a game of chicken: The Republicans hope the Democrats cave on key issues before the real-world ramifications of their actions start to undermine their approval rating. Given the tiny majority the Republicans have in the current House, that political pressure will be all the more acutely felt.

Meanwhile, the Democrats have a majority in the Senate, which means President Biden will be able to fill federal appointments, especially vacant judge seats at all levels. Given how far rightward the Supreme Court has drifted, it will be vitally important that any federal judiciary openings be filled promptly.

The staying power of the Supreme Court鈥檚 Trumpian right-wing majority is an open鈥攊f opaque鈥攓uestion, as Supreme Court justices typically keep their personal intentions and health out of the public view. As such, it鈥檚 hard to estimate whether the oldest justices, , are anywhere near retiring.

And probably most important for the health of the country, Attorney General Merrick Garland appointed special counsel Jack E. Smith to oversee the myriad federal investigations into Trump, in addition to the the Department of Justice has brought against the insurrectionists. The House鈥檚 Jan. 6 committee wrapped up its work with a . Unlike former special counsel Robert Mueller III, whose work was stymied under pressure of a Republican president and attorney general, that he鈥檚 already 鈥攁nd he now has the full body of work and criminal referrals of the Jan. 6 committee to add to his cases. There鈥檚 a good chance that justice of some sort lies in the not-too-distant future.

The other arena to watch (especially if Congress grinds to a halt) will be in the statehouses and state court systems. The states are ground zero for battles over abortion rights, voting rights, same-sex marriage, transgender rights, and more. Consider these three examples in just the past week:

The Pennsylvania legislature, where Republicans had a temporary two-seat majority due to absences, , who , announcing, 鈥淚 pledge my loyalty to the people of the Commonwealth.鈥�

On Jan. 5, the , which had effectively banned all abortions after six weeks鈥� gestation. (Prior to the overturning of Roe v. Wade, South Carolina had a 20-week ban.) That won鈥檛 stop anti-abortion forces from having another go at it, but in a preemptive move against bans or increased restrictions on abortions, the Department of Justice issued a ruling that the even in states that have banned the procedure, and therefore cannot be sued.

And a in Georgia. (Under Georgia law, the grand jury must send its recommendation to another grand jury for filing charges.)

But it鈥檚 not all good news at the state level. Increasing numbers of cities are enacting new rules criminalizing homelessness, for example, which may make the problem worse, or violate individual rights. New York City Mayor Eric Adams has released a sweeping plan for people deemed 鈥渟everely mentally ill鈥� to hospitals until a plan for their care is created. And while voters in Sacramento in November passed an initiative that requires the city to provide shelter beds for its homeless population, the measure also makes it a .

None of this is happening in a vacuum. A hasn鈥檛 abated. Brazil just had its own version of Jan. 6, as a right-wing mob invaded government buildings demanding the reinstallation of former president Jair Bolsonaro鈥攚ho conceded his electoral loss to Luiz In谩cio 鈥淟ula鈥� da Silva, and was .

Brazil鈥檚 coup attempt matters not just because of the ideological similarities between Bolsonaro and Trump, but because many of the same people appear to have connections to fascist movements around the world鈥攆or example, former Trump advisers , venture capitalist , and Twitter鈥檚 new owner , who鈥檚 been busy restoring the accounts of Jan. 6 insurrectionists. And behind it all, the shadowy influence of . With all this, sunshine continues to be the best disinfectant. The show on the House floor during the speaker elections illuminates the ongoing Republican assault on democracy, just as we continue to see new and emerging connections to global fascism emerge. If there鈥檚 one positive to emerge out of Trump鈥檚 destructive administration, it鈥檚 that the most radical actors have come out of the shadows. Standing up to them is on us.