大象传媒

It鈥檚 election season, and the leading candidates for president are barnstorming from state to state on the stump-speech circuit. Or, in the case of former president Donald Trump, to keep court dates.

As they say: priorities.

Trump was indicted last week, along with 18 other defendants, in Fulton County, Georgia. That makes the fourth jurisdiction in which the former president is facing criminal penalties, following the cases in Washington, D.C., where he was charged in federal court with (four counts), and in Florida for (40 counts, including , for obstructing the government鈥檚 efforts to get them back), and in New York for (34 counts of falsifying business records).

In Georgia, , out of 41 total charges that also target 18 co-defendants. Trump鈥檚 charges include violating Georgia鈥檚 racketeering laws, and several that stem from the conspiracy to submit a false slate of electors to the Electoral College鈥攁nd which also include the 鈥溾�� to Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, asking him to 鈥渇ind 11,780 votes鈥� to change the outcome of the election.

Among the flurry of indictments and addenda and superseding indictments, it鈥檚 hard to keep track of which ones are important. The answer is that all of them are vitally important. If four indictments seem excessive, it鈥檚 because Donald Trump was excessive in committing crimes in multiple jurisdictions.

In the , Trump is in deep doo-doo. But that doesn鈥檛 mean we can let down our guard.

We need to come to terms with an uncomfortable truth: the fact that Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee for president. His ability to campaign may be limited by his legal woes, but his supporters will vote for him anyway. We鈥檙e entering a presidential election phase where the Biden-vs.-Trump rematch is 99% certain, and that 1% hedge has only to do with both candidates being decades older than the average American president. 

No viable candidate is going to emerge on the Democratic side to challenge an incumbent president with a largely successful term in office under his belt. First, we have Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a new darling of the right whose has been shown to be of his and . Second, we have Marianne Williamson, whose 鈥減olitics of love鈥� nonetheless failed to win over American hearts in 2020, and are likewise suspect, even if they鈥檝e since been eclipsed by those of RFK Jr.

And it鈥檚 been obvious from day one that the Republican Party is setting itself up to repeat the 2015 primary race, where Trump picks off, one by one, a large number of third-tier politicians . Just as in 2015, he won鈥檛 even need a majority of the Republican vote, because he鈥檚 the only candidate who will have more than 20% to begin with.

(The one possible exception to this is former , who has said he鈥檚 in the race specifically to try to take Trump down. More power to him if he does, because no one can defeat Trump by ignoring him鈥攈e has to be confronted head-on and destroyed. Maybe Christie is the one to do that, but I鈥檓 still waiting for evidence.)

In 2023 though, , despite the indictments. That鈥檚 because the GOP since 2015 has largely purged itself of its establishment wing, leaving the extremists in control. (Meanwhile, , and they as the campaign season begins.)

And, while the indictments seem to be fueling a modest dip in Trump鈥檚 national polling numbers, the indictments are boosting his polling numbers within the Republican primary. That鈥檚 because his followers believe, with all the fervent religiosity of cult members, that the Big Bad Woke Government is persecuting loyal, patriotic Republicans. The charges only feed their persecution complex, which is what feeds the hand-wringing commentators urging us not to prosecute Trump, out of fear of what his supporters will do. As if his supporters haven鈥檛 already tried to violently overthrow the government.

Let鈥檚 disabuse ourselves of another fantasy. Even if Trump goes to prison because he鈥檚 found guilty, or he鈥檚 put in jail for contempt by a judge who refuses to tolerate his taunts and threats, he will continue running for president, he will win the GOP nomination, and he could indeed be reelected. There ought to be a law, but there isn鈥檛. The narrowly divided Congress has been unable to do the sensible thing and pass legislation , or even just in response to his two impeachments.

I wouldn鈥檛 put much stock in the recent 鈥溾�� articles either. They鈥檙e interesting arguments, and the law professors making the case are perhaps even correct that the Fourteenth Amendment prohibition is automatic, with no Congressional action needed. But most state GOP officials who have the power to boot Trump from the ballot aren鈥檛 going to do that without a court order, and this is a party that has increasingly shown its willingness to .

This doesn鈥檛 mean Trump won鈥檛 eventually go to prison. But it鈥檚 very unlikely to happen before the next election, given the inevitable appeals and Trump鈥檚 expertise in delay tactics and avoiding accountability. After all, he still insists he won the 2020 election. This could go on for a long time.

But there are signs we will see some major results before the election.

Special Prosecutor Jack Smith, who brought both the classified documents case in Florida and the election interference case in Washington, D.C., has indicated he isn鈥檛 going to accommodate Trump鈥檚 usual tactics and. Smith even indicated he鈥檇 allow the documents trial to be postponed to accommodate this one.

That鈥檚 important for two reasons. One, voters have a right to know if Trump is guilty or not guilty before casting their votes. More importantly, if Trump wins, he can, and will, simply dismiss any federal cases that are still pending. Maybe he鈥檒l even settle the cases with a payout from the government to himself to cover his (likely inflated) legal fees. He may pardon himself if he鈥檚 both found guilty and wins the election, because his handpicked, subservient attorney general won鈥檛 stop him鈥攁nd that鈥檚 even more of an argument to make sure Trump never again obtains power.

Fortunately, U.S. District Court Judge Tanya Chutkan also appears to be resistant to Trumpian antics, granting Smith鈥檚 early request to , as he is almost certainly going to do. She鈥檚 also issued a , indicating that she will take any necessary measures to stop Trump from intimidating witnesses or tainting the jury pool with his trial-by-tantrum strategy.

In 2016, someone who hadn鈥檛 been paying attention might be forgiven for not expecting the rampancy of criminal behavior once Trump ascended to national office. But the mass media can鈥檛 be forgiven, since it鈥檚 their job to be paying attention. And, speaking personally as someone who grew up on the East Coast in the 1970s and 鈥�80s, it was pretty obvious back then that Trump was, at best, a tawdry huckster with a long line of shady deals and business failures to his name, both and . He was a regular of the New York Post鈥檚 鈥淧age Six鈥� gossip column and grocery store checkout-line magazines. By extension, the 鈥渟erious鈥� media should have done a better job warning American voters about someone they only knew from highly scripted appearances on The Apprentice.

In 2023, mass media no longer have an excuse, and largely they鈥檝e been fairly good. But they鈥檙e still acting as if the Republican nomination isn鈥檛 a foregone conclusion. And the possibilities of more Trumpian violence, let alone another Jan. 6鈥搒tyle insurrection, can鈥檛 be understated.

The United States is quite imperfect in living up to its ideals, but the general trend has been to get better at it. Allowing someone to escape justice just because he鈥檚 a former president, or because we鈥檙e afraid of his followers, undermines our commitment to have justice for all.

Fortunately, it appears we aren鈥檛 going to allow justice to be denied in this case. Prosecuting (and convicting) Trump won鈥檛 change the minds of his loyal base, and it may indeed push some of them over the edge. But it will show that the rest of the nation is willing to live up to its principles.

This article was updated at 10:45 a.m. PDT on Aug. 23, 2023 to correct the number charges faced by former president Trump in the federal classified documents case. The original article didn鈥檛 include superseding indictments, which added three charges to the total. Read our corrections policy here.

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Chris Winters is a senior editor at 大象传媒, where he specializes in covering democracy and the economy. Chris has been a journalist for more than 20 years, writing for newspapers and magazines in the Seattle area. He鈥檚 covered everything from city council meetings to natural disasters, local to national news, and won numerous awards for his work. He is based in Seattle, and speaks English and Hungarian. Connect:

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