Happiness Swings Votes鈥擝ut Not How You鈥檇 Expect

New findings challenge the political adage that youthful idealism gives way to conservative pragmatism with age.

Happiness may be reshaping America鈥檚 political landscape.

Since the 1960s and the election of President John F. Kennedy, younger voters have supported Democratic candidates, while older voters leaned Republican. But , and now, in 2024, large numbers in both groups are bucking traditional assumptions about their political affiliation.

This shift challenges the age-old political adage that youthful idealism gives way to conservative pragmatism with age. As pollsters and pundits scramble to explain the phenomenon, one intriguing theory emerges: It may .

The Unhappy Vote for Change

I am an and the co-founder and co-director of the . Our lab investigates and analyzes public opinion and political trends nationwide. With the upcoming election, I鈥檝e been specifically examining the potential influence of happiness on voting patterns.

Research worldwide indicates that happy people prefer keeping things the same, and they . Voters who aren鈥檛 as happy are more open to anti-establishment candidates, seeing the government as a source of their discontent.

These findings may help to explain the Democratic Party鈥檚 waning support among young people.

This group is still reliably blue. Vice President Kamala Harris , with 50% favoring her over former President Donald Trump鈥檚 34%. U.S. voters ages 18 to 35 mainly prefer Democratic views on and . Yet they are more likely to vote Republican than they have been in the past, especially young men.

Youth Are No Longer Carefree

Declining life satisfaction and happiness levels among young Americans may help to explain their changing political preferences.

Our found that 55% of respondents ages 18 to 34 reported dissatisfaction with their lives, compared with 65% of the general population.

These findings, , challenge the common belief that young adulthood is one of life鈥檚 happiest periods.

Happiness has traditionally been seen as a U-shaped curve, with the youngest and oldest voters reporting greatest levels of happiness. reported being carefree and happy, enjoying their newfound independence and opportunities. Older folks, meanwhile, were finally past the stresses of juggling work, family, and relationships, and beginning to enjoy retirement.

Today鈥檚 young Americans are unhappier than past generations. That鈥檚 true worldwide, according to the , but the drop is particularly drastic in the U.S., where suicide rates among young people rose .

Experts attribute the , including a childhood interrupted by the pandemic, the dramatic increase in , and rising costs of living. Young people are also stressed by political polarization, distrust in the media, and two wars raging abroad, in Ukraine and the Gaza Strip.

Social media exacerbates these anxieties, encouraging young people to compare themselves with others in unhealthy ways and exposing them to a lot of negative news, which can .

All these happiness-dampening concerns may be shaping political preferences. Some unhappy young voters are drawn to candidates who promise economic stability and growth. Other young adults, unhappy with the political system, want radical change鈥攁ny change.

Seniors for Harris

The changing political preferences of unhappy young Americans are particularly revealing when compared with those of older Americans, who have been getting happier in recent years.

suggests that older voters, long a Republican base, are trending blue in 2024. As of September 2024, Harris leads among older voters, with somewhere between 51% to 55% favoring her over Trump.

These happy seniors appear to be concerned about sweeping changes that could occur under another Trump administration, like . The Supreme Court鈥檚 overturning of Roe v. Wade in 2022 erased what was seen as a major milestone and accomplishment for that generation.

Older Americans are also focused on retaining , a Democratic priority that Trump has wavered on, and maintaining lower prescription drug costs. Both of these programs help keep older Americans happy and healthy. They barely register for young people.

Polls are notoriously slippery, and they鈥檒l keep changing. But, increasingly, age is no longer a very good indicator of party affiliation.

Happiness Matters at the Ballot Box

I am not suggesting that happiness drives all voting behavior or explains changing political preferences in the United States. But I am saying that it should not be ignored.

Kamala Harris and Tim Walz have made joy a theme of their campaign, and the two candidates have been all smiles on the campaign trail, including here in Philadelphia on Aug. 6, 2024.Photo by Andrew Harnik/Getty Images

My research indicates that to understand why people vote the way they do, it鈥檚 essential to examine happiness alongside other key factors like the economy and personal experiences. By studying how happiness connects with age, life experiences, and engagement with social media, researchers can gain clearer insights into the changing voting behavior of both young and old voters.

The 2024 presidential candidates seem to have intuited this. The Harris campaign is all about 鈥渏oy鈥� and . The Trump campaign adopts an angrier tone and a grievance-filled approach.

Ultimately, happiness is more than just a mood. Just as much as ideology, the literal pursuit of happiness may be shaping decisions at the ballot box.

This article was originally published by聽. It has been republished here with permission.聽

Carol Bishop Mills is the director of the School of Communication and Multimedia Studies, and co-director of the Political Communication and Public Opinion Lab at Florida Atlantic University. Her research is on human behavior and personal relationships, and her primary scholarship is on bullying, teasing, and contentious relationships.

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