大象传媒

What exactly do I mean by large? Last fall the scientists who study sea ice in the Arctic reported that it was melting even faster than they鈥檇 predicted. We blew by the old record for ice loss in mid-August, and by the time the long polar night finally descended, the fabled Northwest Passage was open for navigation for the first time in recorded history. That is to say, from outer space the Earth already looks very different: less white, more blue.

What do I mean by large? On the glaciers of Greenland, 10 percent more ice melted last summer than any year for which we have records. This is bad news because, unlike sea ice, Greenland鈥檚 vast frozen mass sits above rock, and when it melts, the oceans rise鈥攑otentially a lot. James Hansen, America鈥檚 foremost climatologist, testified in court last year that we might see sea level increase as much as six meters鈥攏early 20 feet鈥攊n the course of this century. With that, the view from space looks very different indeed (not to mention the view from the office buildings of any coastal city on earth).

SEE: Global Warming Feeback Loops

What do I mean by large? Already higher heat is causing drought in arid areas the world over. In Australia things have gotten so bad that agricultural output is falling fast in the continent鈥檚 biggest river basin, and the nation鈥檚 prime minister is urging his people to pray for rain. Aussie native Rupert Murdoch is so rattled he鈥檚 announced plans to make his NewsCorp empire (think Fox News) carbon neutral. Australian voters ousted their old government last fall, largely because of concerns over climate.

What do I mean by large? If we鈥檇 tried we couldn鈥檛 have figured out a more thorough way to make life miserable for the world鈥檚 poor, who now must deal with the loss of the one thing they could always take for granted鈥攖he planet鈥檚 basic physical stability. We鈥檝e never figured out as efficient a method for obliterating other species. We鈥檝e never figured out another way to so fully degrade the future for everyone who comes after us.

In the 20 years that we鈥檝e known about this problem, we鈥檝e steadily burned more coal and gas and oil.

Or rather, we have figured out one other change that rises to this scale. That change is called all-out thermo-nuclear war, and so far, at least, we鈥檝e decided not to have one. But we haven鈥檛 called off global warming. Just the opposite: in the 20 years that we鈥檝e known about this problem, we鈥檝e steadily burned more coal and gas and oil, and hence steadily poured more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. Instead of a few huge explosions, we鈥檝e got billions of little ones every minute, as pistons fire inside engines and boilers burn coal.

Having put off real change, we鈥檝e made our job steadily harder. But there are signs that we鈥檙e finally ready to get to work. Congress is for the first time seriously considering legislation that would actually limit U.S. emissions. The bills won鈥檛 be signed by President Bush, and they don鈥檛 do everything that needs doing鈥攂ut they鈥檙e a start.

And the international community meeting in Bali in December overcame U.S. resistance and began the steps toward an international treaty that will be ready in 2009. The talks are going slowly, largely because of American intransigence, but George Bush won鈥檛 be president forever, so there鈥檚 at least a chance we鈥檒l re-engage with the rest of the world.

If we do, there are steps we can take. Because the problem is so big, and coming at us so fast, those steps will need to be large. And even so, they won鈥檛 be enough to stop global warming鈥攁t best they will slow it down and give us some margin. But here鈥檚 the deal:

We need to conserve energy. That鈥檚 the cheapest way to reduce carbon. Screw in the energy-saving lightbulbs, but that鈥檚 just the start . You have to blow in the new insulation鈥攂low it in so thick that you can heat your home with a birthday candle. You have to plug in the new appliances鈥攏ot the flat-screen TV, which uses way more power than the old set, but the new water-saving front-loading washer. And once you鈥檝e got it plugged in, turn the dial so that you鈥檙e using cold water. The dryer? You don鈥檛 need a dryer鈥攖hat鈥檚 the sun鈥檚 job.

SEE: Who’s Willing to Step Up?

We need to generate the power we use cleanly. Wind is the fastest growing source of electricity generation around the world鈥攂ut it needs to grow much faster still. Solar panels are increasingly common鈥攅specially in Japan and Germany, which are richer in political will than they are in sunshine. Much of the technology is now available; we need innovation in financing and subsidizing more than we do in generating technology.

We need to change our habits鈥攔eally, we need to change our sense of what we want from the world. Do we want enormous homes and enormous cars, all to ourselves? If we do, then we can鈥檛 deal with global warming. Do we want to keep eating food that travels 1,500 miles to reach our lips? Or can we take the bus or ride a bike to the farmers鈥� market? Does that sound romantic to you? Farmers鈥� markets are the fastest growing part of the American food economy; their heaviest users may be urban-dwelling immigrants, recently enough arrived from the rest of the world that they can remember what actual food tastes like. Which leads to the next necessity:

We need to stop insisting that we鈥檝e figured out the best way on Earth to live. For one thing, if it鈥檚 wrecking the Earth then it鈥檚 probably not all that great. But even by measures of life satisfaction and happiness, the Europeans have us beat鈥攁nd they manage it on half the energy use per capita. We need to be pointing the Indians and the Chinese hard in the direction of London, not Los Angeles; Barcelona, not Boston.

Building a Movement

Most of all, we need a movement. We need a political swell larger than the civil rights movement鈥攁s passionate and as willing to sacrifice. Without it, we鈥檙e not going to best the fossil fuel companies and the auto-makers and the rest of the vested interests that are keeping us from change.

Some of us have spent the last couple of years trying to build that movement, and we鈥檝e had some success. With no money and no organization, seven of us launched StepItUp in January 2007. Before the year was out, we鈥檇 helped organize 2,000 demonstrations in all 50 states鈥攁nd helped take our once-radical demand for an 80 percent reduction in U.S. carbon emissions by mid-century into the halls of power.

We haven鈥檛 won yet鈥攂ut we鈥檙e way beyond what we could have expected when we began. Last November, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi stood at a podium in front of 7,000 college students gathered from around the country at the University of Maryland and led them in a chant: 鈥�80 percent by 2050.鈥� I鈥檓 as cynical as the next guy, but it feels like our democracy is starting to work.

If we鈥檙e going to have a fighting chance, we鈥檒l need every nation pitching in.

It will need to work much better, though. We鈥檒l need to see a whole new level of commitment鈥攖o nonviolent protest, to electioneering, to endless lobbying. We鈥檒l have to be committed to an environmentalism much broader and more diverse than we鈥檝e known鈥攜ounger, browner, and insistent that the people left out of the last economy won鈥檛 be left out of the new one. And we鈥檒l need to see it not just here but around the world. Because they don鈥檛 call it global warming for nothing. If we鈥檙e going to have a fighting chance, we鈥檒l need every nation pitching in鈥攚hich means, in turn, that we鈥檒l have to understand where we all stand right now.

What about China and India?

Here鈥檚 the political reality check, just as sobering as the data about sea ice and drought: China last year passed the United States as the biggest emitter of carbon on Earth. Now, that doesn鈥檛 mean the Chinese are as much to blame as we are鈥攑er capita, we pour four times more CO2 into the atmosphere. And we鈥檝e been doing it for a hundred years , which means it will be decades before they match us as a source of the problem. But they鈥攁nd the Indians, and the rest of the developing world behind them鈥攁re growing so fast that there鈥檚 no way to head off this crisis without their participation. And yet they don鈥檛 want to participate, because they鈥檙e using all that cheap coal not to pimp out an already lavish lifestyle, but to pull people straight out of deep poverty.

Which means that if we want them not to burn their coal, we鈥檙e going to need to help them鈥攚e鈥檙e going to need to supply the windmills, efficient boilers, and so on that let them build decent lives without building coal-fired power plants.

Which means, in turn, we鈥檙e going to need to be generous, on a scale that passes even the Marshall Plan that helped rebuild post-World War II Europe. And it鈥檚 not clear if we鈥檙e capable of that any more鈥攕o far our politicians have preferred to scapegoat China, not come to its aid.

I said at the start that this was not just another problem on a list of problems. It鈥檚 a whole new lens through which we look at the world. When we peer through it, foreign policy looks entirely different: the threats to our security can be met only by shipping China technology, not by shipping missiles to China鈥檚 enemies.

When we peer through the climate lens, our economic life looks completely changed: we need to forget the endless expansion now adding to the cloud of carbon and concentrate on the kind of durability that will let us last out the troubles headed our way.

Another Way to be Human

Our individual lives look very different through these glasses too. Less individual, for one thing. The kind of extreme independence that derived from cheap fossil fuel鈥攖he fact that we need our neighbors for nothing at all鈥攃an鈥檛 last. Either we build real community, of the kind that lets us embrace mass transit and local food and co-housing and you name it, or we will go down clinging to the wreckage of our privatized society.

Which leaves us with the one piece of undeniably good news: we were built for community. Everything we know about human beings, from the state of our immune systems to the state of our psyches, testifies to our desire for real connection of just the kind that an advanced consumer society makes so difficult. We need that kind of community to slow down the environmental changes coming at us, and we need that kind of community to survive the changes we can鈥檛 prevent. And we need that kind of community because it鈥檚 what makes us fully human.

This is our final exam, and so far we鈥檙e failing. But we don鈥檛 have to put our pencils down quite yet. We鈥檒l see.