大象传媒

We鈥檙e entering into a scary new phase of the novel coronavirus pandemic. As many states are lifting lockdown orders, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recently estimated that the by June 1. The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation on May 12 raised its estimate of the .

Given how badly the U.S. has bungled its response to the outbreak so far, it鈥檚 an open question whether anyone can rise to the challenge of leading us through the likely second and subsequent waves of the pandemic.

It鈥檚 clearly not President Trump. Even as he acknowledged on May 3 that 鈥攁n already outdated number as the death tally rose past 80,000 last week鈥擳rump is also encouraging states to end the social distancing and quarantine measures that in some places are in their 10th week. Some states, such as Georgia, which started reopening the week of May 4 , are likely of infections.

The pandemic has revealed a near total collapse of federal leadership.

It鈥檚 not even clear we can look to any single national figure for guidance, except perhaps Dr. Anthony Fauci of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. As of this writing, after an outbreak of coronavirus infections emerged within the White House.

Instead, the pandemic has revealed a near total collapse of federal leadership. In many ways, that was the plan all along. This is what former presidential adviser Steve Bannon meant when he said the goal of this administration was the 鈥渄estruction of the administrative state,鈥� even if he couldn鈥檛 have predicted that a virus would provide the assist.

But instead of a unified federal response, we have state and local governments all scrambling to respond, even as . This comes on top of increased polarization and factionalism that has severely frayed the social fabric that once defined 鈥淎mericanness.鈥�

It鈥檚 true that many responsibilities are best left to the states, if only for the simple reason that smaller populations are easier to manage when it comes to things such as providing clean water and electricity, issuing business licenses, educating children, and keeping the streets paved.

National interests take precedence in those areas where you need the scale that only a population of 320 million people and an economy measured in trillions of dollars can deliver, such as defense and public health. If a nation can鈥檛 protect its citizens, or doesn鈥檛 even try, then it鈥檚 failed as a state. A government that only protects the interests of its leaders bears more resemblance to a mafia family than a nation of laws.

Some Republican governors, like Georgia鈥檚 Brian Kemp, are giving service workers a choice between two bad options: Go back to work (without paid sick leave) and risk serious illness, or stay home and lose your job or unemployment (and maybe your home, too). It鈥檚 not that hairstylists and tattoo artists are essential workers, but that .

Governors are flying blind to fill the power vacuum created by the lack of federal response.

It鈥檚 notable that, as of today, Trump still has not fully invoked the Defense Production Act, with which he could have directed U.S. manufacturers to make necessary and still-scarce medical and protective equipment such as masks, gowns, and ventilators. The only case in which he did invoke the act was to in a plant that was already the . Also notable in light of Trump鈥檚 relentless attacks on already marginalized communities: immigrants and people of color of workers in the meatpacking industry.

And instead of modeling unified leadership, Trump has pitted states against each other to obtain their own equipment, while at the same time having the federal government outbid the states, and at times, to be doled out to . The federal government has acted like a hostile occupying foreign power, not as an ally of the states that make up the United States.

That鈥檚 what led Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan, a Republican, to work back channels to virtually , and secure them at an undisclosed location protected by the Maryland National Guard. Gov. Jared Polis of Colorado, a Democrat, also is out of fear they鈥檒l be intercepted.

Most Republican governors, like Kemp, are itching to lift lockdown orders , while most Democratic governors trying a more cautious approach.

But another interstate dynamic is ultimately more telling: Governors are flying blind to fill the power vacuum created by the lack of federal response.

In this new experiment in federalism, the states are indeed supreme. They can appeal to the Trumpified feds for additional money, but as it鈥檚 become clear, this is not a functional system with standardized procedures and predictable outcomes. Rather, it鈥檚 an appeal of subjects to the sovereign for a beneficial decision. And if the sovereign doesn鈥檛 like you or what you say about him, .

States now are more likely to help each other, such as when Washington Gov. Jay , where they were needed more. And many states are forming alliances to coordinate the reopening of their economies. to reopen, and with the Pacific pact states. . Seven eastern states, including hard-hit New York and New Jersey, have and to .

And, while Trump鈥檚 news briefings are basically campaign rallies for him to air his grievances, rail against political enemies, and , New York Gov. Andrew from across the country (and ) for his calm reassurance and commitment to factual information.

This interstate collaboration is, in part, a recognition by sensible governors that, according to the collective wisdom of the internet, you . But it鈥檚 also a sign that increasingly, the states truly are on their own. The late House Speaker Tip O鈥橬eill famously said that all politics is local, but we鈥檝e now entered an era where all governance is local, too. It鈥檚 almost a form of secession by default.

Rhode Island Gov. Gina Raimondo, a Democrat, exerted a bit of border control early on, turning back cars with New York license plates at the state line, then . . And Native American tribes, most notably the on roads crossing their reservations, invoking their status as sovereign nations with inherent rights. Some of those measures may run afoul of the U.S. Constitution, but when the federal government won鈥檛 take responsibility for public health, local leaders have stepped up.

At the core of a successful pandemic response is having political leaders who want to do right by the people.

One thing that states can鈥檛 do is print money. They still need the U.S. Treasury, and unlike the federal government, states can鈥檛 just ramp up their deficits and debts for critical needs.

But Trump has made clear which states he thinks 诲辞苍鈥檛 deserve aid, and his view is shared widely among Republicans. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has been adamantly opposed to giving the states more federal aid, calling it 鈥溾�� and saying states should just file for bankruptcy instead.

It鈥檚 probably why Gov. Gavin Newsom has on more than one occasion. He鈥檚 trolling Trump a bit, but it鈥檚 also a sly reminder that California, with a GDP of $3.18 trillion, can go its own way if it wanted to, and take the world鈥檚 fifth-largest economy with it.

This isn鈥檛 to say secession is a good or even legal idea (). But the countries that have so far been getting ahead of the coronavirus curve with effective public health measures, such as South Korea, Taiwan, New Zealand, and Denmark, are mostly on the smaller side. Larger and even some midsize nations haven鈥檛 done as well.

Size isn鈥檛 everything. Rigorous testing and contact tracing, and a robust public health system also play important roles, as does public trust in government and experts to generally get things right. There may be many more factors that we simply haven鈥檛 yet learned.

But at the core of a successful pandemic response is having political leaders who want to do right by the people, and not exploit the crisis for profit and political advantage. If Joe Biden defeats Trump in November, the federal government may have an opportunity to reassert its legitimacy. In the meantime (and especially if Trump wins again), power is lying in the street, and it鈥檚 our local leaders who are picking it up.