大象传媒

Four years ago, most media pundits were looking at polling data and sticking their fingers in the political winds, preparing themselves for what was likely assumed to be a major election victory by Hillary Clinton.

Well, we know how that worked out.

Still, the polls in 2016 were actually pretty close to accurate, correctly predicting Clinton鈥檚 popular vote win by nearly 3 percentage points. It鈥檚 just that the pundits were wrong about the distribution of those votes.

And so, here we are again, less than two weeks from Election Day. Former Vice President Joe Biden is ahead in the polls, and Democrats are cautiously optimistic about winning. We know there still are Republican dirty tricks lurking around the margins of the race, but none have truly grabbed hold of the public鈥檚 fickle attention.

Should we be worried? You bet.

Although, it must be said, in a fair election, Biden would, in fact, win this in a blowout. Polling has . And those numbers have been remarkably stable for much of the campaign. Even a couple of last-minute October surprises haven鈥檛 moved the needle鈥攁 New York Post article trying yet again to make Hunter Biden鈥檚 business ventures in Ukraine the 鈥淏ut her emails!鈥� of this campaign has been , and the paper鈥檚 own .

This year, we鈥檙e looking at the deeply undemocratic architecture of our presidential elections.

After the death of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, the Republicans鈥� and Trump鈥檚 efforts to ram through the confirmation of Judge Amy Coney Barrett before the election are not only casting the legitimacy of the court into question, they’re , and also making it more politically palatable for a President Biden and Congressional Democrats to .

In fact, the Senate Republicans鈥� actions and blatant hypocrisy can only really be understood in light of , and this is their last shot to lock in their wins for the next several decades. And they鈥檙e gambling that Joe Biden, as middle-of-the-road as a Democratic politician can be, would be averse to making structural changes to the court. The GOP is banking on Biden being an old-school politician who doesn鈥檛 play dirty the way they do.

So far, Senate Democrats鈥� public opposition to Barrett鈥檚 nomination has focused almost entirely on the threat posed to the Affordable Care Act, which is scheduled to get a hearing before the Supreme Court on Nov. 10. It is a real threat, and if the decision goes the wrong way. But it鈥檚 also a smart political move, because as of this week more than , which the Trump administration has demonstrably failed to control. of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, while his new favorite doctor on the White House coronavirus task force, radiologist while infections are .

Add to that Trump鈥檚 refusal to take health care guidance seriously, despite having been infected with COVID-19 and spreading it to his family, and his refusal to even come up with a national strategy鈥攊n any ordinary situation, this election should be a cakewalk for Biden.

But it isn鈥檛, and the reasons are numerous. It鈥檚 not just because the Electoral College is a profoundly undemocratic institution that skews conservative鈥攑olling analyst Nate Silver has said the Electoral College. It鈥檚 also not just because voting has been under constant assault by the Republican Party since the Supreme Court overturned the Voting Rights Act, resulting in hundreds of thousands of people鈥攎ostly poor, largely people of color鈥攂eing disenfranchised. It鈥檚 not even just because the national media still can鈥檛 refrain from creating a narrative of false equivalencies, reading Trump鈥檚 (long) tally of immoral and illegal behavior out of one side of their mouths, while out of the other side, shouting 鈥淏urisma!鈥�

This year, more than any other, we鈥檙e looking at the deeply undemocratic architecture of our presidential elections and seeing threats we haven鈥檛 had to consider in a long time. Trump has publicly stated he wants a new Supreme Court Justice on the court . And Republicans are certainly preparing to work at the state level to on Dec. 14, regardless of the popular vote.

It won鈥檛 take that much effort to gum up the works; one state鈥檚 electors getting tossed in a court dispute could ensure neither candidate gets a majority, and therefore the House of Representatives will choose. And Republicans have the majority of state delegations in that chamber. Four states have Democratic governors, Republican legislatures, and are : Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. In each of those states, Republican legislators have tried to undermine their Democratic governors, from in Michigan, and , and in Pennsylvania.

What鈥檚 more, the polling so far has moved Arizona, Florida, Iowa, Ohio, and even Georgia into competitive territory for the presidential election. Those states don鈥檛 even have divided government; Republicans control the governorships and legislatures in all five.

Yes, it鈥檚 been a long time (, in fact), when state legislatures so blatantly disregarded the will of the people, but if there鈥檚 any year in which the Republicans will use any trick in the book to steal an election, then 2020 is it, and Donald Trump is their instrument.

So what鈥檚 to stop it? Public action. Progressive critic George Lakey has identified how popular in the past (and while a GOP nullification of state popular vote would be legal, in effect it would be a coup, for nullifying the effect of the vote). Activists will have to be organized in advanced and move fast; .

But maybe the biggest way to ensure the vote will be fair and free is for everyone who can vote to do so. We鈥檙e already seeing signs of that. In states with some sort of early voting (and those five states that offer all-mail or drop-box elections), .

Here in the Seattle area, where ballots can be returned by mail or drop-boxes, the to keep up with the massive influx of votes. In last week as early voting opened up. Same thing in Georgia. And .

Granted, some of that is a result of the Republican state officials reducing the number of polling places, to as few as one per county, which and others living in urban areas. But it鈥檚 also true that in places such as Atlanta.

After four years of Trump, it鈥檚 hard to imagine anyone who can truly be said to be undecided. Even the stereotype of the 鈥渓ow-information voter,鈥� who wakes up from a virtual nap every four years to still say they are undecided, either just literally woke up from a four-year nap, or is just waiting for some last-minute scandal on the Biden side to stick so they have social cover to vote for Trump鈥攚aiting for her emails, all over again. And yet the fact that we鈥檙e even having this discussion鈥攆or instance, whether the Georgia legislature will overturn a Biden popular vote victory鈥攊s evidence as to how far we鈥檝e come. We鈥檙e nowhere near being out of the woods. But Americans have woken up to the fact that the future of democracy is at serious risk, and they鈥檙e taking steps to try and save it. Let鈥檚 hope it鈥檚 enough.