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Inflation has been a bugaboo of right-wingers and even the political center since the 1970s. So it鈥檚 not surprising that with consumer prices rising, the national discourse has suddenly shifted from yesterday鈥檚 news to looming hyperinflation and fiscal ruin. But in order to understand what鈥檚 really going on, you need to understand what inflation is, what it isn鈥檛, and where we actually are.

Starting in the 1980s, American politicians (from both parties, but driven by Reaganite Republicanism) have governed under the assumption that the peak annual inflation we had then was a product of too much government spending. Inflation peaked at about 14% annually in 1980, but the 鈥溾�� is often considered the period between 1965 and 1982, and it also includes such 鈥渆xternalities鈥� as the Vietnam War, President Nixon taking the U.S. off the gold standard, the political crisis surrounding Watergate and Nixon鈥檚 resignation, and the (both stemming primarily from instability in the Middle East).

Despite all those complicating factors, the conventional wisdom blamed President Carter for failing to stem rising prices, especially of gasoline, ushering the era of inflation-phobia.

October鈥檚 6.2% inflation rate, while higher than it has been recently, doesn鈥檛 measure up to our last inflationary crisis

So are we currently on the cusp of runaway inflation or not?

, while higher than it has been recently, doesn鈥檛 measure up to our last inflationary crisis鈥攁t least not yet. While some , their concerns are, shall we say, full of hot air. Hyperinflation is defined as inflation of at least 50% per month鈥攖he kind of crises afflicting 1920s Germany, 1940s Hungary, and that coincide with a broader economic collapse. Those governments printed money to keep up with expenses, but with those nations鈥� domestic economies in ruins, the money had nothing to buy, causing prices to skyrocket in a vicious cycle driven by too much demand for too little supply.

The U.S. is experiencing none of those conditions, and, indeed, the economy has been buoyed in the 21st century by emerging as the and as a . The gross domestic product, as imperfect a measure of the whole economy as it is, has been , and the Federal Reserve has not taken any action in 2021 so far that demonstrates concern over inflation.

Even as oil production becomes increasingly unsustainable in the face of and the , the U.S. dollar is still the top reserve currency in the world, unlikely to be supplanted by the euro, yuan, or Bitcoin. Even Donald Trump鈥檚 couldn鈥檛 dislodge the dollar from its perch atop the global financial system, or sidetrack the U.S. stock market. Job growth in 2021 has been generally good (), and Goldman Sachs is now predicting that recovery from the pandemic will lead to a .

In other words, we鈥檙e seeing some consumer price inflation, but the economic fundamentals appear to be sound. So what鈥檚 really going on?

In short, misdirection. Today鈥檚 Republican Party has become a party of opposition to anything that could be considered a Democratic 鈥渨in.鈥� Look no further than the intra-GOP strife over the votes for . When for supporting a bill their own party had a hand in crafting, it鈥檚 yet one more sign of a party that has gone off the deep end. (There鈥檚 a similar dynamic playing out with . We can .)

But infrastructure plan notwithstanding, Biden鈥檚 got a few more agenda items, notably his 鈥淏uild Back Better鈥� plan, a muc that includes such necessary programs as paid family leave, universal preschool, extension of the child tax credit that has kept families afloat during the pandemic, investments in clean energy and climate programs, and more.

The response to inflation has become conflated with simplistic political positioning.

The Republicans are universally opposed to all of those programs, so the Democrats bundled them into a budget reconciliation package that could pass the Senate by a simple majority. That entails having the entire caucus unified, however, which hasn鈥檛 happened yet, and .

The sticking point in the plan, some 鈥攁nd now, inflationary fears. In fact, a lot of the media coverage of the plan focuses on the total price tag, some $1.75 trillion, which is indeed a huge amount, even if it鈥檚 half the size of Biden鈥檚 initial $3.5 trillion proposal. The message is still the same 40-year-old line that more government spending equals more inflation.

But that鈥檚 an overly simplistic argument to make. Setting aside the political machinations behind this argument, it fails to take into account that Biden鈥檚 plan, as originally proposed, would have been paid for with tax increases and therefore would not have led to any net spending increase. Most of those tax increases were on the very wealthy, however, which naturally made the entire Republican Party line up against it and exposed a few Democrats鈥� primary allegiances to big business.

This argument also overlooks the fact that the spending for the reconciliation bill would be spread out over 10 years, amounting to $175 billion per year. Considering that the U.S. government budget for 2020 contained $6.6 trillion in spending, saying that increasing that spending by about 2.7% will lead to economic catastrophe is a touch hyperbolic, if not divorced from past experience (Trump鈥檚 2020 budget spending plan was a 33.3% increase over his $4.4 trillion 2019 budget, while revenues dropped to $3.4 trillion from $3.5 trillion). In addition, the , meaning that new proposed spending would barely make a dent in the overall economy.

But the plan鈥檚 effects would definitely be felt by those who need it most: the poor, the working class, parents of young children, the elderly鈥攅xactly the sort of people whom Democrats hope to win or maintain as voters in their coalition. The , however, and it鈥檚 done a . That鈥檚 allowed Republicans to frame the entire debate as one over trillions in government spending, which in their narrative is entirely wasteful.

Inflation has become the latest excuse trotted out to try and sideline this agenda. Even a couple of are using inflation as an excuse to try to kill, delay, or water down the bill even more than they have already, probably fearing that Republicans will use their vote for more spending as fodder for campaign ads. (Spoiler alert: They鈥檒l do that no matter how the Democrats vote. Truth isn鈥檛 a factor in GOP messaging.)

None of this is to say that inflation can鈥檛 or won鈥檛 be a concern. When prices go up, consumers feel the pinch. But the response to inflation has become conflated with simplistic political positioning, instead of being approached as a complex economic problem to solve.

Consider gasoline prices, which have seen some of the largest price increases lately. What you pay at the pump isn鈥檛 set by the White House. Prices can , and even within states. According to GasBuddy, which reports the cheapest gas available in any given market, the , near Houston. Prices were significantly higher ($2.76鈥�$2.79) in the area, higher still in (up to $2.83), and up to $3.05 in . In , the lowest price in the entire state starts at $3.12 per gallon, and or more.

(, keeping our prices artificially low. High prices are a global issue, with Europeans frequently .)

Other consumer products, such as automobiles and food, have also been getting more expensive. Global supply chains are still being disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic. But these鈥攂oth the prices of imports and the effects of the virus on the shipping industry鈥攁re also largely outside the control of the government. Even if backlogged consumer products make it off into port, the , preventing many products from getting to markets. New cars, another product with volatile prices, are dependent on 鈥攁 factor of global trade, rising tensions between the U.S. and China, and a lengthy production cycle. And those chips also power (and are slowing production and sales of) . .

The two principal tools the U.S. government has for controlling inflation are the money supply and interest rates. With the former, there isn鈥檛 a direct correlation鈥擷 dollars in the economy leads to Y% inflation. Inflation is instead a factor of how much money there is in circulation relative to the amount of products it can buy. A rise in prices caused by a continued shortage in consumer products, amplified by the ongoing disruptions to the global supply chain from the pandemic, can be intensified by a lot of new money flooding the economy. But even while some prices are going up, we鈥檙e not dealing with critical shortages of basic needs (at least, none that are new; our ).

But what is also true is that the investments in the social safety net would put money in the pockets of Americans, not big banks, and Americans, in turn, will use that money for food, bills, child care, or other needs. In other words, that money will circulate and boost the economy, allowing what inflation we have to be more easily absorbed. Leaving Americans destitute in the face of rising prices is both counterproductive and cruel.

And, in the grand scheme of things, we鈥檙e not talking about that much money. A trillion dollars only sounds like a lot until you realize just how many more trillions are already out there. Biden鈥檚 agenda is more about reallocating tax revenue and reprioritizing spending, rather than just letting the printing presses run wild.

Furthermore, . Despite the warnings of inflation from , we haven鈥檛 seen any of those omens of doom come true yet. If things start heating up too much, the Federal Reserve Board has a lot of room to maneuver to cool things down. It’s keeping an eye on inflation, and so far, the , so we shouldn鈥檛 be either. What is worrisome is how much politics is intruding into this discussion. People who know better (and, let鈥檚 face it, many who don鈥檛) are picking up on inflation as a problem that requires a political solution, a 鈥渟olution鈥� that will harm poor and marginalized communities more and allow the rich to keep their wealth safely out of public reach. We can鈥檛 afford to get distracted in this debate.