大象传媒

The 2024 presidential election may well be decided this Tuesday.

That鈥檚 not a typo. The midterm elections this year are about a lot of things鈥攁bortion rights, inflation, preserving (or cutting) Social Security and Medicare鈥攂ut behind all of them is whether or not U.S. democracy is going to continue to operate as it has.

That鈥檚 not because there are so many anti-democracy initiatives on the ballots, though there are a small number of states considering voter-restriction measures. The main reason is that a huge number of Republican candidates for key statewide offices, including those overseeing elections, are 鈥渆lection deniers鈥� who deny that President Joe Biden won the 2020 election, or insist without evidence that he won only because of fraud.

Many of them want to ensure a different outcome in 2024.

Democracy, however, seems to be taking a back seat to other issues in many voters鈥� minds. And the as we draw closer to Nov. 8. That鈥檚 a perfectly natural phenomenon, as more voters who earlier 肠辞耻濒诲苍鈥檛 make up their minds or hadn鈥檛 been paying much attention start to do so.

This is on top of the fact that the party in power typically loses in the midterm elections鈥攏ot always, but most of the time. Since 1934, the president鈥檚 party has , which would be enough to hand control of both houses of Congress to Republicans this year, though .

The Washington Post has counted across the country this year, . Among them, 171 are favored to win, in large part because congressional and state legislative electoral districts have become . According to The Cook Political Report, only 35 House seats nationwide are considered a toss-up race, and 25 of them are currently held by Democrats.

There are some signs, mostly in early voting numbers, that . As of Nov. 2, in 46 states, according to the at the University of Florida, . That trend is likely to yield 鈥攊n 2018, a , a rate of 49.4% of eligible voters, and the .

Those voter numbers are up in both parties, but the fact that more people are voting or intending to shows a growing awareness that even the midterms are important to the future of the country.

Even a Republican sweep of both houses of Congress won鈥檛 spell an immediate end of democracy in the U.S. The party will be unable to govern with the majorities to pass its most polarizing legislation over President Biden鈥檚 inevitable veto鈥攁nd, in fact, the party hasn鈥檛 shown much inclination in recent years to do any governing, aside from cutting taxes on the wealthy and trying to thwart any Democratic administration goals.

There鈥檚 every reason to expect the MAGA-fied GOP would dive headlong into this circus. But until 2024, it鈥檇 mostly be for show. , for example. We can also expect blocking of judicial appointments, including of Supreme Court seats if there are any openings, plus , trying to , (reason to be determined), and they 肠辞耻濒诲苍鈥檛 pass on their own. Plus, any number of other policies that will be bad for the economy, individual rights, the environment, and global peace, but will likely make their wealthy donors even wealthier.

Most of those proposals won鈥檛 survive, so long as a Democrat occupies the White House. But some of them might, especially if the Republicans鈥� tactics win concessions in must-pass legislation, such as future omnibus bills that give the government its budget authority.

The real danger is at the often-overlooked state level, where government officials have more power over elections. Some Republican candidates for state governor or the U.S. Senate are taking a card from former President Donald Trump鈥檚 playbook, and if they lose.

But the odds are favoring many of them to win, and not just in safely Republican states. Polling in Arizona, for example, shows a tight race for governor. According to The Post, of the 12 candidates running for statewide office or Congress, , including GOP candidate , who has become a standard-bearer for the Trumpist right and made nonexistent election fraud the centerpiece of her campaign.

That list also includes the secretary of state candidate, Mark Finchem, who was at Trump鈥檚 Jan. 6, 2021, rally in Washington, D.C., prior to the violent insurrection at the Capitol building, and who issued a resolution in the Arizona legislature calling . despite being hugely outspent and running a low-key campaign.

We鈥檙e seeing a similar pattern in other states, as , presumably so they can eliminate whatever 鈥渇raud鈥� they believe to be there. (In this context, 鈥渇raud鈥� usually means 鈥減eople voting for Democrats鈥� generally, and 鈥淏lack people voting鈥� specifically.)

It鈥檚 pretty clear we haven鈥檛 seen any significant diminishing of Trump鈥檚 toxic stew of racism, corruption, cult of personality, and politicization of the government to pursue his political enemies and reward his friends. That stew has boiled over into fascism (), and it鈥檚 the antithesis of what a free democratic system should be.

With all that on the line, the prospect of a victorious GOP fatally undermining fair elections for decades to come is quite real, especially as the Supreme Court weighs even further.

Once again, it鈥檚 come down to voters deciding whether the long-term future of the U.S. is outweighed by this year鈥檚 inflation rate, or if they lost their job, or if their preacher sermonizes against abortion or health care for transgender people, or if they get their news exclusively from Fox or other right-wing propaganda networks.

Focus on abortion was supposed to counter those other kitchen-table issues. Indeed, a , the first election after the Supreme Court eliminated the constitutional right to abortion, turned into a rout. On the ballot was a measure that would have rescinded a part of the state constitution that recognizes abortion as a right. , and many Democrats assumed that fear of a national ban enacted by Republicans would drive voters to the polls. That win was followed by , including flipping Alaska鈥檚 only Congressional seat blue.

People don鈥檛 like having their rights stripped away, it seems. But it also seems that an environment of persistent disinformation is muddying the waters where we desperately need more clarity.

For example: Inflation is high, but it is also a global phenomenon. The annual U.S. rate of 8.2% in September is , and well below the average rate of large and industrialized nations, 10.73%. It鈥檚 also well below the U.S.鈥檚 .

Domestic spending, especially the COVID-19 relief packages signed by President Biden, could have , and probably somewhere in between, according to most economists. You鈥檇 never know this listening to Republicans.

Or, consider a perceived rise in violent crime. Again, this is true, but it isn鈥檛 the whole story, in that the rise is comparatively small, and , let alone in earlier decades.

Meanwhile, , (especially when compared with the ), and even .

At the state level, too, abortion has taken a back seat to many other issues. . But this election, the first national election since not just the Dobbs ruling but also since the Jan. 6 insurrection, a grand total of . And four of them鈥擟alifornia, Vermont, Montana and Kentucky鈥攈ave measures that will likely reinforce the expected electoral outcome: Californians and Vermonters will vote on preserving a right to an abortion in their constitutions, while Montanans and Kentuckians will vote on enacting more restrictions. The only nationally competitive state with a measure to protect abortion rights on the ballot is Michigan. Compared with other , abortion seems like just another issue on the table.

We may still be surprised as the votes are tallied over the coming days and weeks. Trump鈥檚 win in 2016 was shocking because his political views were so far outside the norm that most pundits assumed he simply 肠辞耻濒诲苍鈥檛 win. The fact that he did win, even with a narrow Electoral College鈥搊nly victory, forced a lot of people to recognize that norms weren鈥檛 what we thought they were.

Six years after that fateful night, fascism is still in vogue in the Republican Party. And the movement is sure to outlive Trump. Inflation definitely hurts. But in the long run, fascism will hurt more. That鈥檚 why we can鈥檛 lose sight of the big picture.