大象传媒

There鈥檚 a certain amount of political theater within any State of the Union address: They鈥檙e formulaic affairs with scripted applause lines, made-for-the-camera special guests, and a requisite checklist of policy goals or interest groups that need a shoutout.

But they鈥檙e also a rebranding exercise for a sitting president. Despite having a 鈥渂ully pulpit鈥� to command the nation鈥檚 attention, the president has relatively few opportunities to grip the attention of the entire nation when the country is not in the midst of an acute crisis. Former President Donald Trump experienced the downside of using every day in power as an opportunity for gratuitous self-aggrandizement鈥攈is suggests he never won any converts to his cause, and the 2020 election demonstrated that he actually lost many supporters along the way.

The SOTU address is, however, a moment for presidents to lay out their agendas without the filter of the media, the spin from the opposition party鈥檚 鈥渞esponse鈥� (usually an even more theatrical and substance-free event), or social media commentary for anyone watching the event live. Outside of an address during a major crisis, the SOTU is the best uninterrupted opportunity presidents have to shape public perceptions of their administration and the country as a whole.

As such, an SOTU address is also often seen as an electoral barometer. Is the president running again or not? Is he able to change the dominant narrative?

Changing the narrative is something President Biden and the Democratic Party ought to be better at than they are. The 鈥渕essaging war鈥� between the two parties tends to favor the Republicans, whose ability to march in formation and repeat simple slogans ad nauseam often garners more press and better public traction than the Democrats鈥� policy wonkishness and nuanced analyses.

Ever since the Republicans regained control of the U.S. House of Representatives, it鈥檚 been clear the party was going to spend the next two years trying to besmirch and undercut anything and everything that Biden, his administration, his family, his allies, or his friends do, even if it crashes the global economy. Not coincidentally, the chaotic energy of today鈥檚 GOP feeds a false narrative that serves Republicans, as an insurgent political movement with no actual policy agenda except to stop the Democrats: The country is coming off the wheels, cities are crime-infested hellholes governed by elite socialists, everyone is unemployed, and the tax man is coming to take away most of Joe America鈥檚 meager paycheck.

That kind of relentless mudslinging does add up, but it can and needs to be counteracted with another, better story.

Biden鈥檚 address was the first chapter of that story. Admittedly, Biden is not the gifted communicator Barack Obama is, nor the perpetual salesman that Trump is. He occasionally rushed, and he stumbled through his stutter a couple of times. To put it gently, Biden is past his prime.

But he was also in full 鈥渉appy warrior鈥� mode: Rather than ignoring the frequent heckling from the likes of Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene and others in the GOP鈥檚 growing fascist wing, he pushed back, got in their face, and shut them down with demands to 鈥渃all my office!鈥� For an 80-year-old, he demonstrated more spunk that most of either caucus in the Senate, and he amply counterpunched the Republican noisemakers from the House.

Biden鈥檚 defenders would say his accomplishments speak for themselves, but the fact is, they don鈥檛. Average Americans don鈥檛 read monthly job reports or try to divine the Federal Reserve鈥檚 future policy shifts on interest rates.

So it was incumbent for Biden to lean into the relative successes of his administration so far. And on the grand scheme of things, almost : , , , even a bit.

But as the adage goes, when you鈥檙e unemployed, the unemployment rate is 100%. Our perception of events is filtered through our own eyes, and we tend to see what we want to, which also tends to reinforce our political beliefs.

And it鈥檚 true that life in the United States today is not all roses and bonbons. While job creation has been , the , as does the . Every Black man who is killed by a police officer is a reminder to the entire nation that we live in a society poisoned by four centuries of white supremacy and violent oppression of minority groups. (To wit, than in any year in the past decade鈥攁veraging 100 killings per month, according to Mapping Police Violence.)

To Biden鈥檚 credit, he didn鈥檛 avoid these subjects. The parents of Tyre Nichols were two of his guests at SOTU, and Biden used the platform to talk about 鈥渢he talk鈥� that Black and Brown parents give their children about how to interact with police.

Biden could easily have devoted an entire speech to police reform鈥攁nd later, he might鈥攂ut as such, the subject was sandwiched between COVID-19 and an assault weapons ban. Climate change warranted a brief mention鈥攗nderwhelming for what is likely going to be the defining crisis of coming decades, but if you blinked, you probably missed it. An average viewer鈥檚 takeaways from the speech would likely be Biden鈥檚 constant refrain to 鈥渇inish the job鈥� (on police reform, on infrastructure investments, on America), his final paean to bipartisanship, and his warning of the dangers of extremism.

That鈥檚 the unavoidable drawback of a 90-minute speech crammed with a list of policy wins, a year鈥檚 worth of agenda items to come, obligatory applause lines, and namechecking of allies and guests. Instead, the State of the Union address serves more as an opening play in a longer political process, which, in this case, is Biden鈥檚 almost-inevitable re-election campaign.

Is running again a good idea? Given his achievements so far, he鈥檇 be a fool not to, and the Democratic Party certainly doesn鈥檛 want a bruising primary battle undercutting a largely successful incumbency. No one who voted for him was unaware he鈥檇 enter and leave as the oldest president on record. He won anyway, and the odds are in his favor to win again.

Meanwhile, the Republicans are a chaotic mess, with the 2024 primary season looking to be even more unruly than 2016鈥檚 was. The GOP is being yanked around by its most extreme faction and suffers from weak leadership, and Trump鈥檚 wannabe-heir, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, has been leaning in hard on , punishing one of the state鈥檚 marquee employers, and going all-out to , .

As another saying goes, when your enemy is making a critical mistake, don鈥檛 interfere. (Barack Obama鈥檚 鈥減roceed, governor,鈥� line to Mitt Romney in the 2012 debates comes to mind.) Even if Trump doesn鈥檛 win the nomination again, he鈥檒l likely do the GOP a lot of parting damage as he鈥檚 pushed offstage.

The national media鈥檚 coverage of the 2024 race will be predictable: They鈥檒l devolve into the horse-race narrative, rely on false equivalencies to compare Republican scandals and crimes with Biden鈥檚 verbal gaffes, or otherwise try to make the race into something fun and exciting, instead of a serious referendum鈥攁gain鈥攐n whether the U.S. is going to remain a democracy.

Voters recognized the seriousness of that decision during the 2022 midterm elections, and the early signs going into the next cycle are that Joe Biden recognizes that, too. It may seem exhausting that yet another election is going to hinge on such existential questions. But at a time when wars overseas are being fought over issues of democracy and self-determination, it鈥檚 a good reminder that our choices matter. And the fact that we still have a choice matters most of all.